历史变局、国家兴衰与发展之路——三次千年变局叠加下的中国特色社会主义发展道路

每当先进的发展制度开始取代落后的发展制度时，整个世界格局就会进入重大的转换阶段。在中国五千年的发展历史中，有两次重大的历史变局完全改变了中国历史发展轨迹并深远地影响了当前中国的发展模式。新时代下的中国作为前两次历史变局影响的客体，曾经既是先进发展制度取代落后发展制度的受益者，也经历过作为落后发展制度主体而被先进发展制度冲击的过程。目前世界正处于第三次先进发展制度与落后发展制度交替的历史变局阶段，作为第三次重大历史变局的主体，在三次千年历史变局叠加的背景下，能否有效地认识、适应并改造利用前两次历史变局的经验与教训，构建系统性、科学性、可行性、领先性的中国特色社会主义制度，将决定中国在本次历史变局中能否顺利成为先进发展制度的主体从而实现民族复兴。     

Changes in work and care trajectories during the transition to motherhood

In most mid- and high-income countries, there have been significant demographic, structural, and cultural changes in the past decades. However, we know little about how these changes have shaped women's work patterns during a key life stage: the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data from Chile, covering over 30 years of employment histories and three periods of first births (1980–2010), I conduct sequence analysis to identify women's work-care trajectories during an eight-year period of the transition to motherhood. Over time, I find that continuous care work at home has declined, for which education plays a key role, while the chances of working continuously have not changed over time. Instead, I find an increasing trend of unsteady paths that combine paid work with either caretaking or unemployment. I discuss how these changes, as well as their association with education, have important implications for both gender and social inequality.     

公司高级管理人员解雇保护问题研究——以《劳动合同法》第48条为视角

在我国,由于劳动法和公司法内容的冲突以及公司高级管理人员在现有劳动法语境下身份的特殊性,导致了不同法院对于劳动合同违法解除后劳动合同继续履行与否的判决并不一致。高级管理人员并不完全具有劳动法上劳动者人格和经济上的从属性,因而其不应该获得完全的与普通劳动者相同的倾斜保护。而且,高级管理人员被解聘后,因为岗位的重要性,公司往往会迅速找人代替;由于岗位数量稀缺性和要求的专业性,高级管理人员要求恢复原岗位的要求在实践中难以满足。因此,法院在适用《劳动合同法》第48条时,不应支持被解除职务的高管的复职请求,而应采用其他救济方式。     

农用承包地流转意愿的实证研究--基于福建省六地市农户问卷调查

从农户意愿角度，以福建省农民的农用承包地为研究对象，对影响农户承包地流转的因素进行分析，通过实地调查和问卷调查的形式收集到影响农户流转承包地的样本数据，并对通过建立二元Logistic模型对各个因素的显著性进行检验。通过实证研究发现，户主受教育程度、户主的职业、农户家庭的人口、家庭的收入主要来源、承包地面积和农户流转承包地的租金水平是农户流转承包地的显著性影响因素，其中户主受教育程度、家庭的收入主要来源、承包地面积和租金水平是正向影响，户主的职业和农户家庭的人口是负向影响。根据研究的结论提出相应的政策建议。     

社会多元化转型期隐私权与知情权关系研究

当代中国，社会的思维方式、行为方式、评价模式发生着深刻变化，并具体对隐私权与知情权的发展扩展产生重要影响。今天，隐私权与知情权冲突问题日益突出，冲突本质在于两者在价值与利益问题上的紧张关系，并具体展现为公法领域冲突与私法领域冲突两大方面。为化解权利冲突，应明确人格尊严与自由、社会政治与公共利益的基本冲突协调原则，构建包括认定、确立、调整、评价四个层次的完整冲突协调体系。     

司法附属行政语境下的中国古代法官地位

“司法附属行政”是中国古代司法的一个重要特征。在这一背景下，中国古代法官地位就呈现出鲜明的附属性特征，这种特征同样体现在法院的地位和司法权的地位上，这也导致中国古代法官没有专门的职业保障制度，而这一切都深深地镶嵌在当时的人治大背景之中。通过与现代法官地位的比较，可以更加深切地感受到古今法官地位以至整个司法状况的巨大差异。中国现代法官地位在独立性方面相对于古代法官有了巨大改善，但仍然不尽如人意，还需要在今后的司法改革中进行反思和重点关注。     

Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

Explicit analytical solutions for ARL of CUSUM chart for a long-memory SARFIMA model

This paper aims to derive explicit analytical solutions for Average Run Length (ARL) of CUSUM chart for the SARFIMA(P,D,Q)_S process with exponential white noise. Measurement of performance was done with the ARL in terms of percentage error and CPU time. The results obtained from the explicit formulas were compared focusing on the performance using the numerical integral equation (NIE) method. Both methods had similarly excellent agreement with the percentage error at less than 0.25%. Meanwhile, the explicit formulas consumed less CPU time than the NIE method. It is clear that the explicit formulas are a good alternative in real applications.     

我国冰雪体育旅游现状及发展策略探究

随着北京-张家界申办2022年冬季奥运会的成功，冰雪体育旅游迅速成为了当今最受关注的热门产业之一。如果能抓住这次发展机遇，大力开展冰雪体育旅游项目，可以为当地旅游业的发展创造极大的收益，与此同时还能提升我国冰雪体育旅游层次。通过阐述我国冰雪体育旅游的发现现状，对其中存在的问题和面临的挑战进行分析，结合实际情况提出冰雪体育旅游的发展对策。     

体系变革、战略塑造与近代日本的海权兴衰

本文提出了地缘政治学的三种研究路径:地理要素、权力政治、战略分析。针对1868年明治维新至1941年的太平洋战争这段时期,日本的海权崛起为何逐渐走向失控这个议题,提出的自变量解释是体系变革,它涵盖权力结构、地理因素与攻防平衡交互影响等;国家的战略塑造能力是中介变量,包括:战略对手的塑造、国内共识的形成、地缘学说的吸收和运用、联盟战略构成等。结合海军与陆军部门的竞争关系、国内政治与外部战略环境的交互影响、地理与历史的基础性作用、对马汉、豪斯浩弗等地缘学者的历史影响考察,以及近代日本先后针对中国、俄国(苏联)和美国进行的战略调整优劣进行评估。最后得出结论:国家的海权发展应有大战略思维,片面追求军国主义和穷兵黩武不利于国家的长远利益。